rAINFALL OUTLOOK

(December 2023 to April 2024)

We apply ensemble forecasting to know the 5-month rainfall forecast of municipalities with arable and cultivated land based on land cover classification of DA-BAR.

Source: Project 2.1 Community-Level SARAI-Enhanced Agricultural Monitoring System (CL SEAMS); NOAA-Climate Prediction Center

Province:

Municipality:

ICMF BULLETIN

(October-February 2024 based on Semptember 2023 Condition)

We generate science-based site-specific advisories using SARAi-generated meteorological information for better farm management decision-making.

Source: Dr. Artemio Salazar; Project 3.3 Integrating Research Results, Communication Planning, and Linking Science to Policy

Region:

Advisory: CAR where corn is grown rainfed usually has good rainfall in the 4th quarter hence high harvest is expected in the 1st quarter. Then rainfall declines in the 1st quarter leading to lean 2nd quarter harvest. The biggest corn producer is Ifugao, then followed far behind by Kalinga, Mountain Province and Apayao In CAR, the predicted higher than normal rain in the 4th quarter should lead to good 1st quarter harvest. There is no predicted drop in rainfall in the 1st quarter hence we expect that the 2nd quarter harvest will still be lean as usual but with no further drop.

	Rainfall Forecast					40-year average of province					% of 40-year avg.
Province	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Abra	278	208	101	55	43	221	169	51	15	12	1.26	1.23	1.99	3.79	3.59
Apayao	382	392	258	151	83	342	398	170	55	32	1.12	0.98	1.52	2.72	2.61
Benguet	241	163	54	18	18	297	129	50	13	20	0.81	1.27	1.08	1.32	0.86
Ifugao	301	266	162	78	75	279	221	130	46	43	1.08	1.2	1.24	1.69	1.73
Kalinga	325	309	173	88	56	247	267	127	33	28	1.32	1.16	1.36	2.64	2
Mountain Province	317	288	157	77	61	247	209	104	28	30	1.28	1.37	1.5	2.7	2.04

Weather monitoring

We install Automatic Weather Stations to forecast the expected amount of rainfall for today and the next 5 days.

Source: Project 2.2 Enhanced Operation and Connectivity of Automatic Weather Stations and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Units for Crop-Environment Monitoring and Forecasting; WU

6-Day Forecast: IPB-UPLB